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Nifty is expected to open with a gap up of 300-400 points on November 25, following the BJP-led NDA's strong performance in the Maharashtra elections, which is anticipated to boost market confidence and focus on infrastructure development. Experts note that this positive surprise could elicit a strong market reaction, despite recent corrections. The benchmark indices gained over 2.5 percent on Friday, although they remain marginally down for the month.
Global climate talks at COP29 in Baku ended with a controversial agreement, where wealthy nations pledged $300 billion in climate funding by 2035, criticized by India as an “optical illusion.” The final document also mentioned a broader goal of $1.3 trillion annually in climate finance, but many countries and activists expressed disappointment over the lack of substantial commitments. Tensions peaked when small island states and least developed countries briefly walked out before rejoining negotiations.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are set for a strong start on November 25, buoyed by GIFT Nifty trading around 24,312. Following significant gains on November 22, where the Sensex rose by 1,961.32 points (2.54%) to 79,117.11 and the Nifty increased by 557.40 points (2.39%) to 23,907.30, market sentiment remains positive.
Budgeted salary increases across Southeast Asia for 2025 are projected to rise compared to 2024, with technology and manufacturing sectors leading at 5.8%. However, Singapore and Thailand are expected to lag behind the region, with increases of 4.4% and 4.7%, respectively, due to lower economic growth and inflation rates. The demand for skilled talent continues to drive these increases amid a competitive labor market.
Elisabeth Baume-Schneider successfully advanced a major healthcare reform, achieving 53.3% approval, while facing challenges in pension policy, where her proposals were largely blocked by a conservative majority. Despite winning key healthcare votes, rising costs and a need for further reforms loom, particularly in the AHV system, which requires new funding sources by 2026.
US retailers are extending Black Friday deals into weeks-long sales events to stimulate consumer spending, which is showing signs of slowing. Major retailers like Walmart, Amazon, and Target are offering significant discounts, yet general merchandise sales fell 3% year-on-year as consumer confidence remains low amid persistent inflation concerns. Despite forecasts of nearly $1 trillion in holiday sales, growth is expected to be the slowest since 2018, prompting retailers to incentivize purchases across different income levels.
Trump's incoming administration is marked by hawkish appointments, yet there are signs of a more accommodating approach towards China, influenced by business interests. Despite ambitions to broker peace globally, challenges such as escalating conflicts in Ukraine and Israel's military actions complicate his peacemaking goals. The evolving international landscape may hinder Trump's ability to leverage negotiations effectively, raising questions about his capacity to fulfill his promises of ending wars and making significant deals.
America's national debt has reached $36 trillion, equating to $107,000 per person, and is projected to increase rapidly. Donald Trump's potential return to the White House may lead to significant tax cuts, with estimates suggesting his policies could add $4.1 trillion to borrowing over the next decade. In the last fiscal year, federal spending exceeded tax revenue by $1.8 trillion, representing 6.4% of GDP.
The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance's decisive victory in Maharashtra and Haryana is expected to stabilize investor confidence and stimulate infrastructure development, according to analysts at MOFSL Research. With over 120 seats secured, the BJP's strong performance alleviates concerns about fiscal direction and market stability following the central election results in June. This outcome is anticipated to reinvigorate market dynamics and support capital expenditure initiatives.
The market rebounded strongly, recovering nearly 2% for the week ending November 22, driven by short-covering ahead of the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance's victory in Maharashtra assembly elections. As the week of November 25 begins, attention will shift to the assembly election results, India's GDP figures, and U.S. economic data, with expectations of continued positive momentum despite potential volatility from monthly F&O expiry. The BSE Sensex closed at 79,117, up 1.98%, while the Nifty 50 rose 1.6% to 23,907.

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